Diocesan Growth Strategies: Quotes 1

High Leigh has wifi, so here's a few quotes from the first session of the Diocesan Church Growth Strategies conference, from a very quotable diocesan missioner:

"sometimes people in the diocese, when you talk about church growth, people respond rather dismissively, as if this was the triumph of shallow marketing over deep theology and rootedness.” (that one got a few nods from our corner)  

“I want to stop evangelism being a dirty word in this diocese.” 

“Making new disciples and growing them in the faith: anything less is not only disobedience to the Lords command, but also guarantees that we are working on a very short time-line.” (speaking in the context of a diocese that had seen a recent sharp decline in membership. i.e. the choice is mission or death, though we shouldn't need it put in such stark terms to concentrate our minds)

“Our (church) culture is probably more powerful than our strategy. Our strategies can be powerful signifiers of cultural norms, but if our strategies and our culture are not aligned, culture wins.” (i.e. you can have as many statements, plans and bits of paper as you want, but a memo is no match for hearts and minds.)

v encouraging to hear a couple of dioceses talking about cathedrals planting new congregations in neighbouring areas. 

(Explanation: the conference has reps from various Dioceses in the south of the UK, hearing from different dioceses about their growth strategies, hearing from various specialists (George Lings from Church Army, James Lawrence from CPAS, Rachel Jordan the CofE's national mission specialist, and the ABofC himself later this evening) to learn from each other and work out best practice for dioceses who are seeking to encourage growing churches. So far so good.)

How is an Anglican Welcome different from a Methodist Welcome? Not a Lot.

It's both encouraging, and slightly discouraging, to find that both the CofE and the Methodist church now have a good set of resources to help church focus on becoming more welcoming: both having a welcoming building, and being a welcoming people.

The Anglican resource is the superb Everybody Welcome course, which has been around for a couple of years. We're using bits of it at our local Deanery Synod (gathering of local CofE church reps, once a term): using a DVD clip to highlight an issue, and sending everyone back to their churches with a couple of the checklists to fill in to help them review an aspect of the life of the church. Then at the next meeting, we'll hear back how they got on, what they're going to do about it, and highlight another issue.

The Methodists now have their own resource, First Impressions Count, which covers a lot of the same ground, using a lot of the same tools - video clips, checklists etc. It's a bit briefer and less in-depth, but looks good and covers a lot of helpful material. It may be easier to use 'off the peg', whereas Everybody Welcome needs more preparation, but also goes into more detail.

Whilst it's good to see both of these national churches recognising a need and filling it with a good resource, I wonder why 2 sets of people needed to do 2 separate projects producing 2 separate resources. There is so much common ground that it would surely have been easier to have adaptable versions of the same thing? We've managed it with Mission Shaped Ministry/Mission Shaped Intro...

Eurokey Cokey

A disharmony in several parts:

Clegg:  You Put Your Whole Self In

Farage: You Put Your Whole Self Out

Cameron: In? Out? In? Out?

Ed: Um

Ed (the other one): That's not fair!

All: You do the Eurokey Cokey and you turn around, barely noticing that voters have lots more important things on their minds.

Cameron: That's what it's all about, well it is today anyway, well when I say today I mean 2017, we're on the side of people who frown hard and want to get re-elected. I mean, work hard and want to get on.

Conservative MPs: Hear hear hear hear hear hear sack him.

Mind and Soul

Somewhere there is bound to be a study on the optimum number of e-newsletters it's possible to receive, before the information overload means that you may as well not receive any at all.

At the weekend, an update arrived from Mind and Soul, a superb resource on Christian faith and mental health, bringing together articles, conference presentations, events, online directory etc., an excellent way to gather all the relevant material in one place. What stuck out was one vicars account of his trouble sleeping (which struck a chord) and this extremely helpful series by Adrian Warnock on mental health, including several posts on specific conditions (depression, schizophrenia etc.)

Though a few of us have been plugging away at this for a while now, there seems to be an extra level of interest among Christians in mental health issues, partly propelled by Katherine Welby's courageous admission of her own depression, and the encouraging levels of sympathy and support that resulted.

Next month the chaplain of our local mental health unit, plus one of the nurses, are coming to take a service on Christianity and mental health. It's probably the first time the subject has been overtly addressed in our church. I hope and pray that for those who suffer, it's encouraging and supportive, and for those who don't, it helps us understand and show informed Christian compassion.

Mental health, depression, and related issues probably affects more of us, and in more profound ways, than Europe, immigration, taxation and press regulation. It's something every church, and every Christian, should be clued up on. Not just to spare sufferers the dreadful experience of crass 'prayer ministry', but to aim much higher, that the church can be a place of understanding, support and acceptance.

Punctuating Julian of Norwich: new insights revealed

Deeper research into various ancient mystical writings has revealed a new side to some of our favourite spiritual sayings.

Julian of Norwich, celebrated in various places yesterday, is famous for her visions and words of wisdom. Most quoted, perhaps, is "all shall be well, and all shall be well, and all manner of things shall be well."

But so much, of course, depends on context. As Julian was illiterate herself, there is the chance that the saying has been wrongly transcribed, especially with regard to punctuation. Instead, Mother Julian is newly revealed as patron saint of the vague and indecisive generalisation, a perfect role model for Anglicans everywhere:

"All manner of things shall be, well.... all manner of things shall be, well...... and all manner of things shall be, well......"

Meanwhile parallel research elsewhere in Europe uncovers more ancient truths. "Preach the gospel at all times, use words if necessary" is commonly ascribed to St. Francis. In other words, St. Francis never said it, but an otherwise questionable idea gains specious credibility and profundity by being linked with a dead mystic who can't answer back.

Again, there is suspicion of both a transcription error, and later additions the original text. Source critics, working on the accepted academic premise that modern scholars have a deeper insight into the message of historic figures than the historic figures themselves, suggest that the original saying was:

"Preach the gospel at all times. Use words."

The addition of 'if necessary' and revision of punctuation looks like a later textual addition by universalists and people who've lost confidence in speaking about Jesus, dateable to the late 20th and early 21st century.

Betting shops 'blight on our high streets'

The recent Future of Britain report asked consumers what would constitute their ideal high street. Top ranking were a bank, a chemist/health store, newsagents and family butcher/baker. Bottom of the list came a pawnbroker (3%) and a bookmaker (9%). To quote the report:

The fate of the high street is one of the issues that most concern the British public. The study found that 76% of adults are concerned about the future of our high streets and a significant proportion  would back a limit on the number of pawnbrokers and betting shops allowed to open in local areas....the vast majority of British shoppers regard betting shops and pawnbrokers as a blight on our high streets.

You don't have to look very far for the evidence. A cafe on our estate sadly had to close earlier this year due to lack of trade. The new owners of the unit are

the sign went up a couple of weeks ago, and our first local bookies is opening soon. Earlier this week the outlet right next door, a hairdresser, announced it was closing down. People have already noted that having a bookies next door would put people off using the place. I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes harder to let the unit as well. Sadly the bookies seems to outlast better shops - in a neighbouring estate the current line-up is a fish and chip shop, charity shop, bookies and tattoo parlour. Not so long ago we had a post office and fruit and veg shop.

The betting industry works hard to keep politicians onside, and problem gambling is on the rise, despite the recession (or maybe because of it - the industry seems to target poorer areas). Research suggests that if you increase access to gambling, that has a knock-on increase on problem gambling. But we can't just blame other people, local communities have to use the shops they want to keep: ASDA will keep trundling on, but the small business down the road depends on local people to use it. And if we don't, people like Ladbrokes will move in.

Church of England: Not Levelling Out

If you don't like stats and bad news, look away now.

Yesterday the Church of England published its annual attendance stats for 2011, there were some encouraging signs, though as British Religion in Numbers points out, there were plenty pointing the opposite way too. The headline was that average weekly attendance was broadly flat 2010-11, some indicators (baptisms, Christmas) were pointing upwards, and the Church of England was actually doing ok, thankyou.

Wanting to compare with more than one years data, I used the very handy little Excel sheet that the CofE have made available with all the 2001-10 data. (The other statistical upside of comparing over more than one year is that the 2010 stats appear to have been revised downwards between their first publication last year, and their use as a point of reference this year. If you use the figure currently on the Excel sheet, we're actually looking at a 2.2% decline 2010-11, rather than the reported 0.3% decline, so I'm seeking clarification.)
 
Here's two tables on Adult Average Weekly Attendance, i.e. the average number of adults attending CofE services across a 7 day week. Firstly, comparing 2011 with 2008. As you can see, the 'levelling out' is fairly minimal even in the short time frame of 3 years:

Adults a.w.a change	3 yr (08-11)	Lichfield	-5.1%
Bristol	9.0%	Carlisle	-5.2%
Exeter	5.2%	Salisbury	-5.5%
Newcastle	1.3%	York	-5.5%
Norwich	0.7%	Guildford	-5.7%
Coventry	0.6%	Chester	-5.8%
London	-0.4%	Rochester	-5.9%
Derby	-0.7%	Wakefield	-6.0%
Sheffield	-1.3%	Chichester	-6.0%
Leicester	-1.3%	Portsmouth	-6.7%
Gloucester	-1.5%	Ely	-6.8%
Oxford	-1.5%	Europe	-6.8%
Hereford	-1.7%	St. Albans	-7.5%
Winchester	-2.0%	Manchester	-8.3%
Chelmsford	-2.7%	Birmingham	-9.7%
Ripon & Leeds	-3.1%	Sodor & Man	-10.8%
Southwell & Nottingham	-3.4%	Southwark	-11.0%
Liverpool	-3.6%	Truro	-11.1%
Durham	-3.7%	Bath & Wells	-11.4%
Peterborough	-3.8%	Bradford	-13.6%
St. Edms & Ipswich	-3.9%	Canterbury	-13.7%
Total Church of England	-4.9%	Blackburn	-14.3%
Worcester	-4.9%	Lincoln	-14.9%

3 Dioceses are growing, 4 are broadly flat, and the other 37 are shrinking. This is bad.

And here's the same data compared over 10 years, with the change 2001-11

Adults a.w.a	10 yr (01-11)	St. Albans	-10.6%
London	8.5%	Rochester	-10.8%
Hereford	0.2%	Bristol	-11.0%
Europe	-1.3%	Guildford	-11.1%
Newcastle	-3.9%	Peterborough	-12.2%
Ely	-3.9%	Wakefield	-12.9%
Manchester	-4.4%	Norwich	-13.9%
Ripon & Leeds	-5.3%	St. Edms & Ipswich	-13.9%
Coventry	-5.3%	Lichfield	-14.6%
Southwark	-5.4%	Birmingham	-15.7%
Derby	-5.8%	Chester	-16.0%
Gloucester	-6.1%	Salisbury	-16.0%
Exeter	-6.1%	Bath & Wells	-16.8%
York	-7.7%	Lincoln	-17.3%
Winchester	-8.0%	Sheffield	-17.5%
Chelmsford	-8.0%	Liverpool	-18.3%
Leicester	-8.3%	Canterbury	-18.5%
Oxford	-8.6%	Sodor & Man	-19.5%
Carlisle	-8.7%	Portsmouth	-19.8%
Chichester	-9.2%	Worcester	-19.8%
Southwell &Nottingham	-9.4%	Bradford	-22.0%
Total Church of England	-10.4%	Truro	-22.6%
Durham	-10.6%	Blackburn	-23.8%

This is very nearly as gruesome as the table in Bob Jacksons 'Hope for the Church' looking at Diocesan attendance change in the 1990s. The stats on children and youth are slightly better than this across both 3 and 10 year comparisons, but still heading downwards in most places, and in the Church of England as a whole.

I'm going to a conference organised by Jackson next week, on what makes for an effective Diocesan growth strategies. By the look of the above, we need them, and few more so than my own diocese.

So again BOILING FROG ALERT TO THE CHURCH OF ENGLAND.

Each year a small decline looks 'manageable'.

But if you take a longer view, we cannot sustain (and in many places we are not sustaining) a model of church, leadership, parochial system, clergy, ordination, sacraments, mission etc. which worked fairly well for several centuries but works no longer.

It may be that this is just the baseline that Justin Welby needs to bring about some radical changes, but the more we console ourselves with the few rising stats, the more we will miss the bigger reality, and the less motivated we will be to do anything about it. The Guardian's Andrew Brown seems to get this better than many Anglicans.

Update Weds lunchtime: the effect of the downwards revision of the 2010 stats means the following:
1. Reported all-age weekly attendance, using original 2010 figures:
2009   1,130,580
2010   1,116,080  (-1.3%)
2011   1,091,484  (-2.2%)  i.e. an accelerated rate of decline, year on year.

2. Reported all-age weekly attendance, using revised 2010 figures as issued yesterday:
2009 1,130 580
2010 1,094,600  (-3.2%)
2011  1,091,484 (-0.3%)

Revising the 2010 figures downwards means that decline 2009-10 was under-reported, and I'm not aware of any reference to this in the data. There are some genuine oddities in the original 2010 figures (e.g. a big jump in Canterbury attendance, which may explain the drop in 2011 reported yesterday), so there probably was some ironing out to do, but that's quite a significant bit of ironing.

Update May 16th: I've spoken to someone involved with the statistics, and yes there's been some double checking of the 2010 stats and ironing out of anomalies (e.g. double counting of some congregations, with Fresh expressions both recorded in the stats of the parish church, and on their own separate stats form). More effort is going in to getting the stats accurate, (and a new membership/joiners/leavers measure is being trialled in a couple of Dioceses), but the revision downwards wasn't reported. We'll simply have to wait and see whether the same level of revision hits the 2011 figures in 12 months time.