Burnhams Hospital Pass

 Already Keir Starmer's would be successors are showing comparable levels of decisiveness and competence. 

First Wes Streeting backtracks from an outright leadership bid and calls for a contest instead. In the meantime, he quits, depriving the government of one of its most able ministers in one of the most crucial departments. I agree with Kemi: he would have been better staying and doing his job. 

Then the MP for Makerfield (no I hadn't either) stands down to give Andy Burnham a shot. At the General Election, Labour was polling 34% nationally, Reform 14%, and Greens 6.9%, and this is the Makerfield result:

• Labour 18,202 (45.2%)
• Reform 12,803 (31.8%)
• Conservative 4,379 (10.9%)
• Libdem 2,735 (6.8%)
• Green 1,776 (4.4%)

Labour are now polling at 18%, the Greens at 16% (mostly at the expense of Labour and a bit from the Libdems), and Reform at 28%. There has been a 15% swing from Labour to Reform, and Makerfield only needs a 7% swing to get a Reform MP. 

The 'King of the North' (speak for yourself Manchester, Yorkshire rules itself) will most likely find himself with no throne. Burnham will get burned. If I were a Burnham sceptic on the NEC I would let him stand, and he will join Streeting on the 'almost but not quite' list. 

Update: here's the Electoral Calculus current prediction for Makerfield. If Andy Burnham wins this, then he'll have evidence to show he can take on Reform. At the 2011 census, the Muslim population was 0.4%, so unless there has been a sizeable change there, the Greens are not in this.